With the 2020 election still eight and one-half months away, many of us are wondering what the size, shape, and character of the election will be. Many experts, including one I consulted, are expecting an historic turnout on Nov. 3rd. That opinion is shared by GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, as well as the progressive voter data group Catalist, so all three sources here are predicting record or near-record turnout. Dr. Michael McDonald, the director of the US Elections Project, or USEP, said today that he expects an “Unusually high turnout rate election not seen in 100 years”. He also referred to this Nov. election as the “Storm of the Century”.
www.google.com/… Link to the US News and World Report article of 9-20-2019
While most of us Kossacks and activists involved in political campaigns think in terms of Registered Voters, registration policy and practice are extremely varied across the states of the US. Some states- think Oregon, for example, have automatic VR opt-in for drivers licenses and vote-by-mail. Others, like N. Dakota, have No voter registration, while Texas is a “you just try to vote” state. So for easy comparison, Dr McDonald uses VEP- Voter Eligible Population. Given the current US “Voter Age Population”, subtract those who are not citizens, and convicted felons, and the result is about 240.1 million people legally eligible to vote in 2020.
So Dr. McDonald (and the USEP) refer to “voting-eligible population, or VEP, is a phrase I coined to describe the population that is eligible to vote. Counted among the voting-age population are persons who are ineligible to vote, such as non-citizens, felons (depending on state law), and mentally incapacitated persons. Not counted are persons in the military or civilians living.” That, in a nutshell, is the VEP.
For a quick comparison, here are the key numbers for some recent elections.
2016 Ballots cast= 138,846,571 VEP= 60.1% (of total ballots cast)
2018 Ballots cast= 118,581,921 VEP= 50.3% (of total ballots cast)
2020 Est. Range 156,000,000- VEP 65%-67 % (of total ballots cast)
161,000,000
*** Citation: { Dr. Michael P. McDonald, 2020. “Turnout, National Turnout Rates 1787-2016+” US Election Project Jan 16, 2020}
What will 18-23 Million more voters do/ vote for in the 2020 election?? That’s the 64 Thousand (million) dollar question. But conventional wisdom says that higher turnout tends to favor Democrats. And that was certainly the case in the 2018 election.
We should keep in mind that the 2018 midterm election was a modern-day record for turnout in a midterm election. The trends set in that election will be sharpened and extended into the coming election. Those trends will almost certainly include:
1) Sharply higher engagement by students and youth voters in the 18-29 y/o age group. Each year, about 3.9 million voters become voter-eligible. They are usually a low-voting block of voters. In 2018, Youth Voters had approx. a 35.6% turnout rate. Since that vote, several organizations have focused on increasing the student vote.
2) Heightened voting % by Hispanic voters, from about 40.4% in 2018
3) Heightened voting % by Black voters, from about 51.4% in 2018
4) Heightened voting % by Asian voters, from about 40.2% in 2018
5) Higher turnout by all women voters, from about 55.0% in 2018
In fact, some people are projecting up to a 35% gender gap between men and women voting for Trump in the coming election.
6) Continued falling of the Non-Hispanic White share of the electorate, from roughly 85-86% of the voters in 1984-1988, to 73.5% in 2016-2018.
** Voter registration efforts are underway in many states, but the most intense projects are concentrating on those states in the “Toss-up” category. In October 2019, the Cook Political report listed 5 states in that group: Wis., Ariz., Fla., NC, & Penn.
ONE Good example:
WE also know that the Stacey Abrams offshoot, Fair Fight 2020, is working in 20 or so states.
votesaveamerica.com/… == Link to a very interesting map of “target” states
In addition to those listed as Toss=ups above, FF 2020 is working in Texas, Mich., Ohio, ME, NH, SC, GA -(of course), Ala., Nev., Kent., LA, and Miss.
The main goals of FF2020 are:
- Build grassroots organizing teams that ensure that voters are able to register, cast their ballot, and have their ballot count
- Work with local elections officials to make sure they’re following and interpreting the laws in ways that actually help people vote
- Use diverse messengers to educate voters on their rights
- Staff a multi-lingual hotline that helps voters answer questions and report issues way before elections and at their polling locations
- Prepare to challenge any suppressive tactics in court
Example Two: Another influential group on the VR front is the Progressive Turnout Project.
From their own press release:
For Immediate Release: Monday, December 9, 2019
Contact: Shannon Faulise | press@turnoutpac.org | 312.380.1737
Progressive Turnout Project Launches $45 Million Investment in Massive, Data-Driven Voter Outreach Program for 2020
Progressive PAC Will Run Largest Grassroots-Funded Field Program, Training 1,100 Field Staff Across 16 Battleground States, Knocking on Seven Million Doors (emphasis mine)
CHICAGO — Today, Progressive Turnout Project (PTP), a grassroots-funded organization dedicated to getting Democratic voters to the polls, announced it will be investing $45 million in on-the-ground efforts in 16 battleground states for the 2020 election — the largest national grassroots-funded field program this cycle. The group estimates it will knock on 7.1 million doors prior to Election Day 2020. ...
That is another massive commitment to voter registration and turnout- with seven million voter contacts.
Example Three:
votefwd.org = Link to Vote Forward website
The Vote Forward group is focused mainly on contacting and “Targeting under-represented registered voters “ in 9 states. Those now include Ariz., Col., Fla., GA., Mich., N. Car., plus Ohio, Penn., and Texas. From a “low” of 39, 050 addresses to contact in Colorado, to a high of 086,247 addresses in Texas, Vote Forward has organized to send letters to the registered voters. It has proven effective in getting voters who received a letter being significantly more likely to vote.
Much like Postcards to Voters, it is using personal contacts to encourage voters to make the effort to vote in specific states. That is a good start!
Final words for today- This is just a sampling of the dozens (literally) of organizations working to increase voter registration and voter turnout across the US. I was not attempting to create a catalogue of Who’s who in Voter Registration. It’s merely a sign that plethora of groups/organizations are very active in resisting the Trump Mis-administration. Just as you would expect!
Also, no one knows exactly how many people will actually turn out it the Nov. election. To say there are a lot of moving parts to the estimate is a major understatement.
It’s also a huge part of my personal sense of hope. The Blue Wave tsunami in November will eclipse all previous elections in numbers- and probably in significance as well. *
* If we keep on donating, organizing, writing, speaking out, registering voters, and Getting out the Vote!!!